|
Refer to the KP&L sample points and sample point
probabilities in Tables 4.2 and 4.3.
TABLE 4.2
COMPLETION RESULTS FOR 40 KP&L PROJECTS |
Completion Time
(months) |
|
|
|
Stage 1
Design |
Stage 2
Construction |
Sample point |
|
Number of
Past Projects
Having These
Completion Times |
| 3 |
6 |
( 3, 6) |
|
4 |
| 3 |
7 |
( 3, 7) |
|
4 |
| 3 |
8 |
(3, 8) |
|
4 |
| 4 |
6 |
(4, 6) |
|
4 |
| 4 |
7 |
(4, 7) |
|
8 |
| 4 |
8 |
(4, 8) |
|
2 |
| 5 |
6 |
(5, 6) |
|
4 |
| 5 |
7 |
(5, 7) |
|
2 |
| 5 |
8 |
(5, 8) |
|
8 |
|
|
|
Total |
40 |
| Table 4.3 |
PROBABILITY ASSIGNMENTS
FOR THE KP&L PROJECT BASED ON THE RELATIVE FREQUENCY
METHOD |
| Sample point |
Project
Completion Time |
Probability
of Sample Point |
| (3, 6) |
9 months |
P(3, 6)=4/40=0.1 |
| (3, 7) |
10 months |
P(3, 7)=4/40=0.1 |
| (3, 8) |
11 months |
P(3, 8)=4/40=0.1 |
| (4, 6) |
10 months |
P(4, 6)=4/40=0.1 |
| (4, 7) |
11 months |
P(4, 7)=8/40=0.2 |
| (4, 8) |
12 months |
P(4, 8)=2/40=0.05 |
| (5, 6) |
11 months |
P(5, 6)=4/40=0.1 |
| (5, 7) |
12 months |
P(5, 7)=2/40=0.05 |
| (5, 8) |
13 months |
P(5, 8)=8/40=0.2 |
|
|
Total 1.00 |
|
The design stage (stage 1) will run over budget if it takes 5
months to complete. List the sample points in the event the design
stage is over budget.
SelectPoints (4,6), (4,7), and (4,7)Points (5,6), (5,7), and
(5,8)Points (2,6), (2,8), and (3,6)Item 1
What is the probability that the design stage is over budget (to
2 decimal)?
The construction stage (stage 2) will run over budget if it
takes 8 months to complete. List the sample points in the event the
construction stage is over budget.
SelectPoints (3,8), (4,7), and (4,8)Points (4,6), (4,7), and
(4,8)Points (3,8), (4,8), and (5,8) Points (3,6), (3,8), and
(4,6)Item 3
What is the probability that the construction stage is over
budget (to 2 decimals)?
What is the probability that both stages are over budget (to 2
decimals)?
|
